Scarborough and Whitby
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 95% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 69%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarborough and Whitby | 31.9% | 28.1% | 23.9% | 8.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+8.8 | 24.3%+3.8 | 20.4%+3.4 | 10.4%−2.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 97,474 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 49 |
| Employment rate | 77.0% |
Current member
Alison Hume · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 12.2 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 3.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alison Hume Elected | Labour | 17,758 | 40.2 |
| Roberto Weeden-Sanz | Conservative | 12,350 | 27.9 |
| David Bowes | Reform UK | 9,657 | 21.8 |
| Robert Lockwood | Lib Dems | 1,899 | 4.3 |
| Annette Hudspeth | Green | 1,719 | 3.9 |
| Lee Derrick | Other | 477 | 1.1 |
| Asa Jones | Other | 285 | 0.6 |
| Thomas Foster | Other | 76 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bridlington and The Wolds Reform UK, toss-up
- Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham Labour, competitive
- Kingston upon Hull East Reform UK, safe seat
- Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice Reform UK, toss-up
- Beverley and Holderness Conservative, toss-up
- Brigg and Immingham Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated