High Peak
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Peak | 35.4% | 25.6% | 22.7% | 10.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+11.1 | 20.4%+5.2 | 23.1%−0.4 | 10.4%−0.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 91,109 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 46 |
| Employment rate | 81.3% |
Current member
Jon Pearce · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 16.1 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 9.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Pearce Elected | Labour | 22,533 | 45.8 |
| Robert Largan | Conservative | 14,625 | 29.7 |
| Catherine Cullen | Reform UK | 6,959 | 14.1 |
| Joanna Collins | Green | 3,382 | 6.9 |
| Peter Hirst | Lib Dems | 1,707 | 3.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hazel Grove Lib Dems, safe seat
- Stalybridge and Hyde Labour, toss-up
- Colne Valley Labour, toss-up
- Macclesfield Labour, competitive
- Oldham East and Saddleworth Reform UK, toss-up
- Ashton-under-Lyne Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated