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Français établis hors de France — 11ème circonscription

Legislative constituency · Français établis hors de France

Forecast of July 11, 2026

Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 85% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.9 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 29%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Centre (Ensemble) 35.0%
  • Left (NFP) 29.1%
  • RN and allies 23.6%
  • Others 4.2%
  • Sovereignists 3.9%
  • Greens 3.1%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) RN and allies Others
Français établis hors de France — 11ème circonscription 35.0%29.1%23.6%4.2%
Provincial averageFrançais établis hors de France 33.1%+1.8 35.6%−6.5 16.6%+7.0 3.3%+0.8
National averageFrance 17.0%+18.0 29.0% 36.0%−12.4 3.9%+0.3

Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.

Current member

Anne GENETET · Centre (Ensemble)

Previous election (2024)

The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.

Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 5.9 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate Party Votes %
Anne GENETET Elected Centre (Ensemble) 16,770 39.9
Franck PAJOT Left (NFP) 12,502 29.8
Pierre BROCHET RN and allies 6,424 15.3
Marc GUYON RN and allies 1,495 3.6
François ASSELINEAU Sovereignists 1,376 3.3
Tatiana BOTEVA-MALO Greens 949 2.3
Anne-France LARQUEMIN RN and allies 719 1.7
Jordan CRUCIANI Greens 574 1.4
Françoise ARTHUR Others 507 1.2
Elise PHONRATH Sovereignists 244 0.6
Jacques CHEMINADE Others 224 0.5
Nelly VIOLETTE Others 148 0.4
Victor MAUREL Others 30 0.1
Nathalie MARTIN Left (NFP) 14 0.0
Olivier MACHET Others 10 0.0

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Forecast updated