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Français établis hors de France — 5ème circonscription

Legislative constituency · Français établis hors de France

Forecast of July 11, 2026

Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 82% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.2 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 37%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Centre (Ensemble) 33.7%
  • Left (NFP) 32.4%
  • RN and allies 24.2%
  • LR and allies 6.0%
  • Others 2.9%
  • Sovereignists 0.8%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) RN and allies LR and allies
Français établis hors de France — 5ème circonscription 33.7%32.4%24.2%6.0%
Provincial averageFrançais établis hors de France 33.1%+0.5 35.6%−3.1 16.6%+7.6 10.6%−4.6
National averageFrance 17.0%+16.7 29.0%+3.4 36.0%−11.8 12.2%−6.2

Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.

Current member

Stéphane VOJETTA · Centre (Ensemble)

Previous election (2024)

The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.

Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 1.2 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate Party Votes %
Stéphane VOJETTA Elected Centre (Ensemble) 14,492 33.7
Maxime DA SILVA Left (NFP) 11,267 26.2
Johana MAUREL RN and allies 8,385 19.5
José SANCHEZ PEREZ Centre (Ensemble) 2,226 5.2
Jeremie FOSSE Left (NFP) 2,161 5.0
Yohann CASTRO LR and allies 2,069 4.8
Béatrice MAZEL RN and allies 794 1.9
Sarah MILLOT Left (NFP) 587 1.4
Alexandre MARIE Left (NFP) 353 0.8
Jean-François CALVET Sovereignists 308 0.7
Maud LAGARDE Others 187 0.4
Christopher BRENIER Others 132 0.3
David NATAF Others 70 0.2

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Forecast updated