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Français établis hors de France — 2ème circonscription

Legislative constituency · Français établis hors de France

Forecast of July 11, 2026

Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 72% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.7 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 57%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 35.2%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 33.5%
  • RN and allies 18.2%
  • LR and allies 11.1%
  • Others 2.1%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
Français établis hors de France — 2ème circonscription 35.2%33.5%18.2%11.1%
Provincial averageFrançais établis hors de France 35.6%−0.4 33.1%+0.3 16.6%+1.6 10.6%+0.5
National averageFrance 29.0%+6.2 17.0%+16.5 36.0%−17.8 12.2%−1.1

Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.

Current member

Eléonore CAROIT · Centre (Ensemble)

Previous election (2024)

The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.

Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 1.7 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate Party Votes %
Sergio CORONADO Left (NFP) 6,952 36.2
Eléonore CAROIT Elected Centre (Ensemble) 6,440 33.5
Marie-Nathalie GONCALVES RN and allies 2,553 13.3
Bertrand DUPONT LR and allies 1,905 9.9
Jessica AGOSTINI Centre (Ensemble) 987 5.1
Nora COURMONTAGNE RN and allies 373 1.9
Camille MERCIER Others 17 0.1

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Forecast updated