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Français établis hors de France — 8ème circonscription

Legislative constituency · Français établis hors de France

Forecast of July 11, 2026

Our forecast gives the LR right a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.6 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • LR and allies 41.2%
  • Left (NFP) 23.7%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 22.2%
  • RN and allies 9.3%
  • Others 3.5%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

LR and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies
Français établis hors de France — 8ème circonscription 41.2%23.7%22.2%9.3%
Provincial averageFrançais établis hors de France 10.6%+30.7 35.6%−11.9 33.1%−10.9 16.6%−7.3
National averageFrance 12.2%+29.0 29.0%−5.4 17.0%+5.2 36.0%−26.7

Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.

Current member

Caroline YADAN · Centre (Ensemble)

Previous election (2024)

The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.

Our current projection: the LR right ahead by 17.6 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate Party Votes %
Meyer HABIB LR and allies 11,557 35.6
Caroline YADAN Elected Centre (Ensemble) 7,855 24.2
Yaël LERER Left (NFP) 7,516 23.1
Guillaume BENSOUSSAN RN and allies 2,044 6.3
Aurelie ASSOULINE LR and allies 1,329 4.1
Gilles NEFFATI Centre (Ensemble) 1,025 3.2
Valérie CHARTRAIN Left (NFP) 457 1.4
Nicolas SPITALAS Others 299 0.9
Philippe HABABOU SOLOMON LR and allies 197 0.6
David BIZET Others 188 0.6
Benjamin SIGOURA Others 15 0.1

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Forecast updated