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Français établis hors de France — 4ème circonscription

Legislative constituency · Français établis hors de France

Forecast of July 11, 2026

Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 55% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.5 points.

Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 90%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 38.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 36.1%
  • RN and allies 13.4%
  • LR and allies 9.4%
  • Others 2.6%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
Français établis hors de France — 4ème circonscription 38.6%36.1%13.4%9.4%
Provincial averageFrançais établis hors de France 35.6%+3.0 33.1%+2.9 16.6%−3.2 10.6%−1.2
National averageFrance 29.0%+9.5 17.0%+19.1 36.0%−22.6 12.2%−2.8

Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.

Current member

Pieyre-Alexandre ANGLADE · Centre (Ensemble)

Previous election (2024)

The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.

Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 2.5 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate Party Votes %
Cécilia GONDARD Left (NFP) 27,898 37.5
Pieyre-Alexandre ANGLADE Elected Centre (Ensemble) 26,410 35.5
Charlotte BEAUFILS RN and allies 6,736 9.0
Genevieve MACHICOTE LR and allies 4,604 6.2
Juliette DE CAUSANS Centre (Ensemble) 4,318 5.8
Sacha COURTIAL Left (NFP) 1,563 2.1
Patrick BRISSET LR and allies 1,492 2.0
Anne-Catherine GIRARD RN and allies 1,001 1.3
Aude ROSSOLINI Others 463 0.6

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Forecast updated