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Français établis hors de France — 3ème circonscription

Legislative constituency · Français établis hors de France

Forecast of July 11, 2026

Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 80% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.4 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 40%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Centre (Ensemble) 40.9%
  • Left (NFP) 39.5%
  • RN and allies 10.7%
  • LR and allies 6.6%
  • Others 2.3%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) RN and allies LR and allies
Français établis hors de France — 3ème circonscription 40.9%39.5%10.7%6.6%
Provincial averageFrançais établis hors de France 33.1%+7.7 35.6%+3.9 16.6%−5.9 10.6%−4.0
National averageFrance 17.0%+23.9 29.0%+10.4 36.0%−25.3 12.2%−5.6

Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.

Current member

Vincent CAURE · Centre (Ensemble)

Previous election (2024)

The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.

Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 1.4 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate Party Votes %
Charlotte MINVIELLE Left (NFP) 26,873 39.2
Vincent CAURE Elected Centre (Ensemble) 26,810 39.1
Sophie CHARBONNET RN and allies 4,504 6.6
Balthazar ROGER LR and allies 3,442 5.0
Assamahou LAMARRE Centre (Ensemble) 3,365 4.9
Joel HESLAUT Centre (Ensemble) 1,251 1.8
Anthony COUTRET RN and allies 752 1.1
Tanguy PINOMAA-DANZÉ Left (NFP) 701 1.0
Emmanuel CONSTANTIN Greens 355 0.5
Tim CRAYE LR and allies 236 0.3
Yvan BACHAUD Others 226 0.3

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Forecast updated