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Français établis hors de France — 1ere circonscription

Legislative constituency · Français établis hors de France

Forecast of July 11, 2026

Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 93% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.4 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 14%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Centre (Ensemble) 38.6%
  • Left (NFP) 35.2%
  • RN and allies 15.1%
  • LR and allies 7.9%
  • Others 3.1%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) RN and allies LR and allies
Français établis hors de France — 1ere circonscription 38.6%35.2%15.1%7.9%
Provincial averageFrançais établis hors de France 33.1%+5.4 35.6%−0.4 16.6%−1.5 10.6%−2.7
National averageFrance 17.0%+21.6 29.0%+6.2 36.0%−20.9 12.2%−4.3

Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.

Current member

Roland LESCURE · Centre (Ensemble)

Previous election (2024)

The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.

Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 3.4 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate Party Votes %
Roland LESCURE Elected Centre (Ensemble) 36,363 38.8
Oussama LARAICHI Left (NFP) 33,822 36.1
Jennifer ADAM RN and allies 10,018 10.7
Olivier PITON LR and allies 4,856 5.2
Véronique JACKSON Centre (Ensemble) 4,643 5.0
Elias FORNERIS LR and allies 1,414 1.5
Alexandra POURCHET RN and allies 1,357 1.5
Greg LACOSTE Others 1,090 1.2
Paloma LADAM Left (NFP) 67 0.1

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Forecast updated