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Français établis hors de France — 7ème circonscription

Legislative constituency · Français établis hors de France

Forecast of July 11, 2026

Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 80% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.1 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 40%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Centre (Ensemble) 39.2%
  • Left (NFP) 37.1%
  • RN and allies 12.0%
  • LR and allies 5.9%
  • Others 5.7%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) RN and allies LR and allies
Français établis hors de France — 7ème circonscription 39.2%37.1%12.0%5.9%
Provincial averageFrançais établis hors de France 33.1%+6.1 35.6%+1.5 16.6%−4.6 10.6%−4.7
National averageFrance 17.0%+22.2 29.0%+8.1 36.0%−24.0 12.2%−6.4

Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.

Current member

Frédéric PETIT · Centre (Ensemble)

Previous election (2024)

The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.

Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 2.1 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate Party Votes %
Frédéric PETIT Elected Centre (Ensemble) 21,929 37.8
Asma RHARMAOUI-CLAQUIN Left (NFP) 18,914 32.6
Mathilde NAVEYS--DUMAS RN and allies 4,520 7.8
Isabelle HUQUET Centre (Ensemble) 3,861 6.7
Cécile RICHARD Left (NFP) 3,211 5.5
Dominique MIER-GARRIGOU LR and allies 2,702 4.7
Jérôme CHAMBON Others 1,948 3.4
Julie ALEXANDRE RN and allies 720 1.2
Fanny GEFFRAY Others 245 0.4

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Forecast updated