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Français établis hors de France — 6ème circonscription

Legislative constituency · Français établis hors de France

Forecast of July 11, 2026

Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.1 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Centre (Ensemble) 38.6%
  • Left (NFP) 31.4%
  • RN and allies 19.0%
  • LR and allies 7.9%
  • Others 3.0%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) RN and allies LR and allies
Français établis hors de France — 6ème circonscription 38.6%31.4%19.0%7.9%
Provincial averageFrançais établis hors de France 33.1%+5.4 35.6%−4.2 16.6%+2.5 10.6%−2.7
National averageFrance 17.0%+21.5 29.0%+2.4 36.0%−16.9 12.2%−4.4

Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.

Current member

Marc FERRACCI · Centre (Ensemble)

Previous election (2024)

The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.

Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 7.1 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate Party Votes %
Marc FERRACCI Elected Centre (Ensemble) 25,590 40.5
Halima DELIMI Left (NFP) 19,446 30.8
Déborah MERCERON RN and allies 9,158 14.5
Olivier CORTICCHIATO LR and allies 4,172 6.6
Jacques DE CAUSANS Centre (Ensemble) 1,888 3.0
Philippe TISSOT RN and allies 949 1.5
Marie-Julie JACQUEMOT Left (NFP) 651 1.0
Arnaud DORTHE Others 627 1.0
Céline VON AUW Greens 419 0.7
Michèle SELLES LEFRANC Left (NFP) 222 0.4

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Forecast updated