Haldimand—Norfolk
Provincial riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives another party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 39.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| OTH | PC | OLP | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haldimand—Norfolk | 63.4% | 24.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 3.0%+60.4 | 41.6%−17.7 | 32.5%−25.6 | 20.3%−14.7 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Bobbi Ann Brady · IND
Previous election (2025)
Another party won by 39.9 points, with 54.2% turnout.
Our current projection: another party ahead by 39.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bobbi Ann Brady Elected | IND | 33,669 | 63.7 |
| Amy Martin | PC | 12,949 | 24.5 |
| Vandan Patel | OLP | 2,918 | 5.5 |
| Erica Englert | NDP | 2,147 | 4.1 |
| Anna Massinen | GP | 821 | 1.6 |
| Garry Tanchak | OTH | 392 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Brantford—Brant PC, safe seat
- Flamborough—Glanbrook PC, safe seat
- Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas NDP, safe seat
- Cambridge PC, safe seat
- Hamilton Mountain OLP, toss-up
- Hamilton Centre NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated