Nunavut
Federal riding · Nunavut · The North
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | NDP | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nunavut | 41.8% | 34.5% | 16.4% | 0.6% |
| Provincial averageNunavut | 41.8% | 34.5% | 16.4% | 0.6% |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−5.2 | 11.8%+22.7 | 30.4%−14.0 | 2.4%−1.8 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Lori Idlout · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 0.5 points, with 35.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 7.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lori Idlout Elected | NDP | 2,853 | 36.8 | Political Candidate |
| Kilikvak Kabloona | Liberal | 2,812 | 36.3 | Nunavut Tunngavik Inc. Executive |
| James T. Arreak | Conservative | 1,992 | 25.7 | Administrator |
| Other candidates | 89 | 1.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Northwest Territories Liberal, safe seat
- Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River Liberal, safe seat
- Churchill—Keewatinook Aski Liberal, safe seat
- Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou Liberal, competitive
- Fort McMurray—Cold Lake Conservative, safe seat
- Labrador Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated