Labrador
Federal riding · Newfoundland and Labrador · Atlantic Canada
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labrador | 52.2% | 31.8% | 3.8% | 0.6% |
| Provincial averageNewfoundland and Labrador | 55.3%−3.1 | 30.8%+1.1 | 4.5%−0.7 | 0.7%−0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+5.2 | 30.4%+1.4 | 11.8%−8.0 | 2.4%−1.8 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
|
|---|
Current member
Philip Earle · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 9.6 points, with 57.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 20.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Earle Elected | Liberal | 5,811 | 50.7 | Executive Management |
| Ella Wallace | Conservative | 4,709 | 41.1 | Operations Manager |
| Marius Normore | NDP | 764 | 6.7 | Health and Safety Advisor |
| Other candidates | 169 | 1.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan Bloc, safe seat
- Long Range Mountains Liberal, toss-up
- Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou Liberal, competitive
- Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj Bloc, competitive
- Jonquière Bloc, safe seat
- Central Newfoundland Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated