Jonquière
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Bloc Québécois a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 7%.
Compared with the average
| Bloc | Conservative | Liberal | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonquière | 39.8% | 30.9% | 26.4% | 4.9% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.3%+12.5 | 24.2%+6.7 | 43.6%−17.2 | 5.7%−0.8 |
| National averageCanada | 6.3%+33.5 | 30.4%+0.5 | 47.0%−20.7 | 11.8%−6.9 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Mario Simard · Bloc
Previous election (2025)
The Bloc Québécois won by 9.6 points, with 67.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Bloc Québécois ahead by 8.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Simard Elected | Bloc | 20,247 | 39.4 | Teacher |
| Fanny Boulanger | Conservative | 15,314 | 29.8 | Parliamentary Affairs Manager |
| William Van Tassel | Liberal | 13,172 | 25.6 | Farmer |
| Lise Garon | NDP | 932 | 1.8 | Political Scientist |
| Patrick Gaudreault | PPC | 516 | 1.0 | Real Estate Broker |
| Marie-Josée Yelle | Green | 448 | 0.9 | Teacher |
| Other candidates | 812 | 1.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Lac-Saint-Jean Bloc, safe seat
- Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Liberal, safe seat
- Rimouski—La Matapédia Bloc, safe seat
- Montmorency—Charlevoix Conservative, toss-up
- Saint-Maurice—Champlain Liberal, safe seat
- Côte-du-Sud-Rivière-du-Loup-Kataskomiq-Témiscouata Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated