Saint-Maurice—Champlain
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 24.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Maurice—Champlain | 49.9% | 25.4% | 21.3% | 3.6% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%+6.4 | 24.2%+1.2 | 27.3%−6.0 | 5.7%−2.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+2.9 | 30.4%−5.0 | 6.3%+15.0 | 11.8%−8.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
François-Philippe Champagne · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 24.9 points, with 65.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 24.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| François-Philippe Champagne Elected | Liberal | 31,095 | 49.2 | Lawyer |
| Pierre-Augustin Allard | Conservative | 15,321 | 24.2 | Communications Advisor |
| Thierry Bilodeau | Bloc | 13,190 | 20.9 | Communications Consultant |
| Nathalie Garceau | NDP | 1,224 | 1.9 | Project Manager |
| Marie-Claude Gaudet | Green | 704 | 1.1 | Administrative Assistant |
| David Rioux | PPC | 455 | 0.7 | Maintenance Worker |
| Dji-Pé Frazer | Other | 251 | 0.4 | Retired |
| Other candidates | 1,000 | 1.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Joliette—Manawan Bloc, safe seat
- Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier Conservative, safe seat
- Berthier—Maskinongé Bloc, competitive
- Laurentides—Labelle Bloc, safe seat
- Trois-Rivières Liberal, safe seat
- Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated