Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 16%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Bloc | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou | 40.9% | 33.2% | 24.5% | 3.7% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%−2.6 | 27.3%+5.9 | 24.2%+0.3 | 5.7%−2.0 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−6.1 | 6.3%+26.9 | 30.4%−5.9 | 11.8%−8.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Mandy Gull-Masty · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 7.0 points, with 47.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 7.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mandy Gull-Masty Elected | Liberal | 12,578 | 40.2 | Unemployed |
| Sylvie Bérubé | Bloc | 10,381 | 33.2 | Parliamentarian |
| Steve Corriveau | Conservative | 6,850 | 21.9 | Delivery Man |
| Thai Dillon Higashihara | NDP | 752 | 2.4 | Digital Organizer |
| Other candidates | 743 | 2.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Jonquière Bloc, safe seat
- Lac-Saint-Jean Bloc, safe seat
- Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Conservative, toss-up
- Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Liberal, safe seat
- Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan Bloc, safe seat
- Saint-Maurice—Champlain Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated