Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk
Federal riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a 76% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.7 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk | 39.3% | 38.0% | 4.9% | 2.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%+4.9 | 48.6%−10.6 | 5.4%−0.5 | 1.8%+1.0 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+8.9 | 47.0%−9.0 | 11.8%−6.9 | 2.1%+0.8 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Gaétan Malette · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 9.9 points, with 62.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 1.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaétan Malette Elected | Conservative | 23,062 | 48.5 | Volunteer |
| Steve Black | Liberal | 18,366 | 38.6 | Mining Engineer |
| Nicole Fortier Levesque | NDP | 4,895 | 10.3 | Educator |
| Serge Lefebvre | PPC | 814 | 1.7 | Mechanical Engineer |
| Other candidates | 404 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Thunder Bay—Superior North Liberal, safe seat
- Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma Liberal, safe seat
- Abitibi—Témiscamingue Bloc, safe seat
- Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt Liberal, toss-up
- Sudbury Liberal, safe seat
- Nipissing—Timiskaming Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated