Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma
Federal riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma | 46.6% | 36.3% | 4.6% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%−2.0 | 34.4%+1.8 | 5.4%−0.8 | 1.8%−0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−0.5 | 30.4%+5.9 | 11.8%−7.2 | 2.4%−1.0 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Terry Sheehan · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 2.6 points, with 67.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 10.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Sheehan Elected | Liberal | 30,936 | 47.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Hugh Stevenson | Conservative | 29,208 | 44.5 | Chief of Police |
| Laura Mayer | NDP | 4,327 | 6.6 | Executive Director |
| Robyn Kiki Eshkibok | Green | 541 | 0.8 | Student |
| James Collins | Other | 305 | 0.5 | Sole Proprietor |
| Other candidates | 351 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt Liberal, toss-up
- Sudbury Liberal, safe seat
- Thunder Bay—Superior North Liberal, safe seat
- Nipissing—Timiskaming Liberal, safe seat
- Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Conservative, toss-up
- Parry Sound—Muskoka Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated