Thunder Bay—Superior North
Federal riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 27.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunder Bay—Superior North | 54.3% | 27.3% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+5.8 | 34.4%−7.1 | 5.4%−0.7 | 1.8%+0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+7.3 | 30.4%−3.1 | 11.8%−7.1 | 2.1% |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Patty Hajdu · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 19.4 points, with 67.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 27.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patty Hajdu Elected | Liberal | 25,134 | 54.9 | Parliamentarian |
| Bob Herman | Conservative | 16,267 | 35.5 | Retired Police Officer |
| Joy Wakefield | NDP | 3,235 | 7.1 | Lawyer |
| Amos Bradley | PPC | 459 | 1.0 | Delivery Driver |
| John Malcolm Northey | Green | 417 | 0.9 | Director of Technology Implementation |
| Other candidates | 269 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma Liberal, safe seat
- Thunder Bay—Rainy River Liberal, safe seat
- Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Conservative, toss-up
- Kenora—Kiiwetinoong Conservative, toss-up
- Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt Liberal, toss-up
- Sudbury Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated