Kenora—Kiiwetinoong
Federal riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 55%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenora—Kiiwetinoong | 39.2% | 34.3% | 8.7% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%+4.8 | 48.6%−14.3 | 5.4%+3.3 | 1.8%+0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+8.8 | 47.0%−12.7 | 11.8%−3.1 | 2.1%−0.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Eric Melillo · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 13.5 points, with 59.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 4.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Melillo Elected | Conservative | 13,109 | 48.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Charles Fox | Liberal | 9,454 | 34.9 | Executive Director |
| Tania Cameron | NDP | 3,698 | 13.7 | Administrator |
| Jon Hobbs | Green | 286 | 1.1 | Retired Architect |
| Bryce Desjarlais | PPC | 204 | 0.8 | Locomotive Engineer |
| Kelvin Boucher-Chicago | Independent | 141 | 0.5 | Carpenter |
| Other candidates | 176 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Churchill—Keewatinook Aski Liberal, safe seat
- Thunder Bay—Rainy River Liberal, safe seat
- Thunder Bay—Superior North Liberal, safe seat
- Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman Conservative, safe seat
- Provencher Conservative, safe seat
- Kildonan—St. Paul Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated