Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman
Federal riding · Manitoba · Rural Manitoba
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | Green | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman | 44.4% | 34.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageManitoba | 31.1%+13.4 | 49.3%−14.8 | 1.5%+0.6 | 9.1%−7.0 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+14.0 | 47.0%−12.6 | 2.4%−0.3 | 11.8%−9.7 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
James Bezan · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 29.6 points, with 70.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 10.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Bezan Elected | Conservative | 32,788 | 59.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Rhonda Nichol | Liberal | 16,570 | 30.2 | Nurse |
| Josef Estabrooks | NDP | 3,535 | 6.4 | Bookseller |
| Wayne James | Green | 709 | 1.3 | Farmer |
| Byron Gryba | PPC | 473 | 0.9 | Business Manager |
| Chris Riddell | Other | 404 | 0.7 | Retired |
| Other candidates | 332 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Winnipeg West Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg North Liberal, safe seat
- Kildonan—St. Paul Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg South Centre Liberal, safe seat
- St. Boniface—St. Vital Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated