Winnipeg West
Federal riding · Manitoba · Winnipeg
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 37.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winnipeg West | 65.1% | 27.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageManitoba | 49.3%+15.8 | 31.1%−3.8 | 9.1%−7.0 | 1.5%+0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+18.1 | 30.4%−3.1 | 11.8%−9.7 | 2.4%−0.8 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Doug Eyolfson · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 13.6 points, with 75.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 37.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Eyolfson Elected | Liberal | 30,276 | 54.2 | Emergency Medicine Physician |
| Marty Morantz | Conservative | 22,659 | 40.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Avery Selby-Lyons | NDP | 2,218 | 4.0 | Sales Clerk |
| Dennis Bayomi | Green | 438 | 0.8 | Retired |
| Other candidates | 320 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Winnipeg North Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg South Centre Liberal, safe seat
- St. Boniface—St. Vital Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg South Liberal, safe seat
- Kildonan—St. Paul Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated