Winnipeg South
Federal riding · Manitoba · Winnipeg
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 47.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winnipeg South | 69.5% | 21.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageManitoba | 49.3%+20.2 | 31.1%−9.5 | 9.1%−6.9 | 2.1%−0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+22.5 | 30.4%−8.8 | 11.8%−9.6 | 2.1%−0.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Terry Duguid · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 23.8 points, with 72.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 47.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Duguid Elected | Liberal | 27,337 | 58.6 | Parliamentarian |
| Janice Morley-Lecomte | Conservative | 16,252 | 34.8 | Retired |
| Joanne Bjornson | NDP | 2,114 | 4.5 | Sales Manager |
| Johann Rempel Fehr | PPC | 385 | 0.8 | Business Owner |
| Manjit Kaur | Green | 231 | 0.5 | Child Care Assistant |
| Other candidates | 339 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Winnipeg South Centre Liberal, safe seat
- St. Boniface—St. Vital Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Elmwood—Transcona NDP, toss-up
- Winnipeg North Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg West Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated