St. Boniface—St. Vital
Federal riding · Manitoba · Winnipeg
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 50.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Boniface—St. Vital | 70.0% | 20.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageManitoba | 49.3%+20.7 | 31.1%−11.1 | 9.1%−6.7 | 2.1% |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+23.0 | 30.4%−10.4 | 11.8%−9.4 | 2.1% |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Ginette Lavack · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 27.3 points, with 72.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 50.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ginette Lavack Elected | Liberal | 32,599 | 59.4 | Arts Administrator |
| Shola Agboola | Conservative | 17,625 | 32.1 | Correctional Officer |
| Thomas Linner | NDP | 3,773 | 6.9 | Executive Director Community Health |
| Gilles Pelletier | PPC | 523 | 1.0 | Retired |
| Other candidates | 407 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Winnipeg South Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg South Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Elmwood—Transcona NDP, toss-up
- Winnipeg North Liberal, safe seat
- Kildonan—St. Paul Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated