Elmwood—Transcona

Federal riding · Manitoba · Winnipeg

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the NDP a 80% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.6 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 89%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	NDP	Liberal	Conservative	PPC
Elmwood—Transcona	35.3%	33.2%	28.0%	2.0%
Provincial averageManitoba	9.1%+26.2	49.3%−16.1	31.1%−3.0	2.1%−0.1
National averageCanada	11.8%+23.5	47.0%−13.8	30.4%−2.4	2.1%−0.1

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 0.7% English 85.2% Other languages 14.1%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Colin Reynolds · Conservative

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Conservative Party won by 7.1 points, with 65.6% turnout.

Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 2.6 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Colin Reynolds Elected	Conservative	19,463	41.3	Construction Electrician
Leila Dance	NDP	16,138	34.2	Parliamentarian
Ian MacIntyre	Liberal	10,512	22.3	Retired Teacher
Collin Watson	PPC	396	0.8	Unemployed
Nicolas Geddert	Green	321	0.7	Project Manager
Other candidates		319	0.7

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.