Winnipeg South Centre
Federal riding · Manitoba · Winnipeg
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 59.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winnipeg South Centre | 74.2% | 14.3% | 2.7% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageManitoba | 49.3%+24.9 | 31.1%−16.7 | 9.1%−6.4 | 1.5%+0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+27.2 | 30.4%−16.1 | 11.8%−9.1 | 2.4%−0.7 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Ben Carr · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 35.7 points, with 74.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 59.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Carr Elected | Liberal | 33,834 | 63.3 | Parliamentarian |
| Royden Brousseau | Conservative | 14,748 | 27.6 | Financial Professional |
| Jorge Requena Ramos | NDP | 3,463 | 6.5 | Artistic Director |
| Chris Petriew | Green | 450 | 0.8 | Homemaker |
| Cam Scott | Other | 314 | 0.6 | Author |
| Jaclyn Cummings | PPC | 272 | 0.5 | Administrative Assistant |
| Tait Palsson | Independent | 97 | 0.2 | Student |
| Other candidates | 298 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Winnipeg Centre Liberal, safe seat
- St. Boniface—St. Vital Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg South Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg North Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg West Liberal, safe seat
- Elmwood—Transcona NDP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated