Winnipeg North
Federal riding · Manitoba · Winnipeg
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 47.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winnipeg North | 68.4% | 20.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageManitoba | 49.3%+19.1 | 31.1%−10.2 | 9.1%−6.5 | 2.1%−0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+21.4 | 30.4%−9.6 | 11.8%−9.2 | 2.1%−0.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Kevin Lamoureux · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 23.4 points, with 58.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 47.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lamoureux Elected | Liberal | 19,792 | 57.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Rachel Punzalan | Conservative | 11,740 | 34.1 | Lawyer |
| Adebayo Akinrogunde | NDP | 2,059 | 6.0 | Mental Health |
| Jessica Bailon | PPC | 274 | 0.8 | Legal Assistant |
| Angela Brydges | Green | 194 | 0.6 | Caregiver |
| Sarah Borbridge | Other | 114 | 0.3 | Community Mental Health Worker |
| Other candidates | 272 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Winnipeg Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg South Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg West Liberal, safe seat
- Kildonan—St. Paul Liberal, safe seat
- St. Boniface—St. Vital Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg South Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated