Kildonan—St. Paul

Federal riding · Manitoba · Winnipeg

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.4 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	PPC
Kildonan—St. Paul	55.3%	33.9%	2.8%	2.0%
Provincial averageManitoba	49.3%+6.0	31.1%+2.9	9.1%−6.3	2.1%−0.1
National averageCanada	47.0%+8.3	30.4%+3.5	11.8%−9.0	2.1%−0.1

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	English 87.6% Other languages (French included) 12.4%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Raquel Dancho · Conservative

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Conservative Party won by 2.8 points, with 71.9% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 21.4 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Raquel Dancho Elected	Conservative	26,364	47.2	Parliamentarian
Thomas Naaykens	Liberal	24,808	44.4	Canadian Armed Forces Reservist
Emily Clark	NDP	3,863	6.9	Director of Account Management
Erik Holmes	PPC	486	0.9	Gas Station Attendant
Other candidates		347	0.6

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.