Winnipeg Centre
Federal riding · Manitoba · Winnipeg
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | NDP | Conservative | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winnipeg Centre | 50.4% | 37.6% | 8.8% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageManitoba | 49.3%+1.1 | 9.1%+28.5 | 31.1%−22.2 | 2.1%+0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+3.4 | 11.8%+25.8 | 30.4%−21.6 | 2.1%+0.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Leah Gazan · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 4.0 points, with 53.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 12.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leah Gazan Elected | NDP | 13,524 | 39.0 | Parliamentarian |
| Rahul Walia | Liberal | 12,138 | 35.0 | Unemployed |
| Tom Bambrick | Conservative | 7,658 | 22.1 | Military Officer |
| Gary Gervais | Green | 389 | 1.1 | School Proprietor |
| Donald Grant | PPC | 367 | 1.1 | Business Owner |
| Debra Wall | Other | 213 | 0.6 | Retired |
| Other candidates | 370 | 1.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Winnipeg North Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg South Centre Liberal, safe seat
- St. Boniface—St. Vital Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg West Liberal, safe seat
- Kildonan—St. Paul Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg South Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated