Churchill—Keewatinook Aski
Federal riding · Manitoba · Rural Manitoba
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 24.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | NDP | Conservative | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Churchill—Keewatinook Aski | 49.1% | 24.3% | 8.4% | 2.8% |
| Provincial averageManitoba | 49.3%−0.1 | 9.1%+15.2 | 31.1%−22.7 | 2.1%+0.7 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+2.1 | 11.8%+12.5 | 30.4%−22.0 | 2.1%+0.7 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Rebecca Chartrand · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 16.6 points, with 41.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 24.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rebecca Chartrand Elected | Liberal | 9,313 | 44.9 | President |
| Niki Ashton | NDP | 5,880 | 28.4 | College Instructor |
| Lachlan De Nardi | Conservative | 4,927 | 23.8 | Student |
| Dylan Young | PPC | 349 | 1.7 | Accountant |
| Other candidates | 263 | 1.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Kenora—Kiiwetinoong Conservative, toss-up
- Riding Mountain Conservative, safe seat
- Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman Conservative, safe seat
- Yorkton—Melville Conservative, safe seat
- Kildonan—St. Paul Liberal, safe seat
- Prince Albert Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated