Yorkton—Melville

Federal riding · Saskatchewan · Rural Saskatchewan

Forecast of October 15, 2026

In the by-election, our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 33.8 points.

The by-election

Favourite

Conservative

100% chance of winning

Seat vacant, polling day not yet set
Cathay Wagantall is leaving
Average lead: 33.8 points

Projected vote share

Conservative 64.0%

Liberal 28.9%

Green 3.0%

NDP 2.5%

PPC 1.6%

Why the by-election and the general election differ

The Conservative Party leads in both cases.

Further down, the projection assumes a general election, with every seat voting on the same day. Fewer people vote in a by-election, and the least motivated supporters are the ones who stay home, so the favourite can change.

Full by-election forecast

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Conservative 61.6%
Liberal 18.5%
Green 2.8%
NDP 1.9%
PPC 1.2%

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

Compared with the average

	Conservative	Liberal	Green	NDP
Yorkton—Melville	61.6%	18.5%	2.8%	1.9%
Provincial averageSaskatchewan	48.4%+13.1	34.9%−16.4	1.3%+1.4	3.1%−1.3
National averageCanada	30.4%+31.2	47.0%−28.5	2.4%+0.4	11.8%−10.0

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Local profile

Language spoken most often at home	English 96.5% Other languages (French included) 3.5%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Current member

Cathay Wagantall · Conservative

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

Previous election (2025)

The Conservative Party won by 62.7 points, with 66.0% turnout.

Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 43.1 points.

Candidates and votes in 2025

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Cathay Wagantall Elected	Conservative	28,702	77.0	Parliamentarian
Luke Guimond	Liberal	5,338	14.3	Political Staffer
Michaela Krakowetz	NDP	2,034	5.5	Sales Administrator
Valerie Brooks	Green	713	1.9	Teacher
Alec Guggenmos	Other	226	0.6	Surveyor, Junior Crew Chief
Other candidates		272	0.7

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Regina—Qu'Appelle Conservative, safe seat
Regina—Wascana Liberal, safe seat
Riding Mountain Conservative, safe seat
Regina—Lewvan Liberal, safe seat
Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan Conservative, safe seat
Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek Conservative, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 15, 2026