Riding Mountain
Federal riding · Manitoba · Rural Manitoba
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 25.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | PPC | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riding Mountain | 52.0% | 26.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% |
| Provincial averageManitoba | 31.1%+21.0 | 49.3%−23.0 | 2.1%+0.3 | 9.1%−6.8 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+21.6 | 47.0%−20.8 | 2.1%+0.4 | 11.8%−9.5 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Dan Mazier · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 45.4 points, with 65.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 25.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Mazier Elected | Conservative | 28,409 | 67.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Terry Hayward | Liberal | 9,281 | 22.0 | Retired |
| Andrew Douglas Maxwell | NDP | 3,072 | 7.3 | Retired |
| Jim Oliver | PPC | 564 | 1.3 | Self-Employed |
| Liz Clayton | Green | 547 | 1.3 | Educational Assistant |
| Other candidates | 264 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Brandon—Souris Conservative, safe seat
- Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman Conservative, safe seat
- Yorkton—Melville Conservative, safe seat
- Souris—Moose Mountain Conservative, safe seat
- Portage—Lisgar Conservative, safe seat
- Regina—Qu'Appelle Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated