Brandon—Souris
Federal riding · Manitoba · Rural Manitoba
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon—Souris | 47.9% | 30.7% | 7.7% | 1.2% |
| Provincial averageManitoba | 31.1%+16.9 | 49.3%−18.6 | 9.1%−1.5 | 2.1%−0.9 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+17.5 | 47.0%−16.3 | 11.8%−4.2 | 2.1%−0.9 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Grant Jackson · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 38.5 points, with 68.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 17.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Jackson Elected | Conservative | 28,624 | 61.7 | Legislator |
| Ghazanfar Ali Tarar | Liberal | 10,766 | 23.2 | Business Owner |
| Quentin Robinson | NDP | 6,637 | 14.3 | Retired United Church Minister |
| Other candidates | 373 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Portage—Lisgar Conservative, safe seat
- Riding Mountain Conservative, safe seat
- Souris—Moose Mountain Conservative, safe seat
- Winnipeg West Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg South Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg North Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated