Souris—Moose Mountain
Federal riding · Saskatchewan · Rural Saskatchewan
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 54.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souris—Moose Mountain | 68.1% | 13.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageSaskatchewan | 48.4%+19.7 | 34.9%−21.0 | 3.1%−1.5 | 1.3%+0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+37.7 | 47.0%−33.1 | 11.8%−10.2 | 2.4%−1.0 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Steven Bonk · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 73.8 points, with 74.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 54.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Bonk Elected | Conservative | 34,793 | 83.5 | Businessman |
| Aziz Mian | Liberal | 4,051 | 9.7 | Career Coach |
| Sheena Muirhead Koops | NDP | 1,888 | 4.5 | Educator |
| Lyndon Dayman | Other | 304 | 0.7 | Safety Officer |
| Remi Rheault | Green | 235 | 0.6 | Retired |
| Travis Patron | Independent | 157 | 0.4 | Courier |
| Other candidates | 235 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Regina—Wascana Liberal, safe seat
- Regina—Lewvan Liberal, safe seat
- Regina—Qu'Appelle Conservative, safe seat
- Brandon—Souris Conservative, safe seat
- Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan Conservative, safe seat
- Riding Mountain Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated