Portage—Lisgar
Federal riding · Manitoba · Rural Manitoba
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 25.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | PPC | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portage—Lisgar | 55.1% | 30.2% | 3.3% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageManitoba | 31.1%+24.1 | 49.3%−19.1 | 2.1%+1.1 | 1.5%+0.6 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+24.7 | 47.0%−16.8 | 2.1%+1.2 | 2.4%−0.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Branden Leslie · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 46.2 points, with 67.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 25.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Branden Leslie Elected | Conservative | 31,889 | 68.9 | Parliamentarian |
| Robert Kreis | Liberal | 10,493 | 22.7 | Retired |
| Lisa Tessier | NDP | 2,011 | 4.3 | Teacher |
| Kevin Larson | PPC | 977 | 2.1 | Store Manager |
| Janine G. Gibson | Green | 595 | 1.3 | Organic Agriculture Inspector |
| Other candidates | 338 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Winnipeg West Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg South Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg South Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg North Liberal, safe seat
- St. Boniface—St. Vital Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated