Provencher
Federal riding · Manitoba · Rural Manitoba
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | PPC | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Provencher | 52.1% | 33.2% | 3.0% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageManitoba | 31.1%+21.0 | 49.3%−16.1 | 2.1%+0.8 | 1.5%+0.7 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+21.7 | 47.0%−13.8 | 2.1%+0.9 | 2.4%−0.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Ted Falk · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 40.2 points, with 70.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 18.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Falk Elected | Conservative | 34,364 | 65.9 | Business Owner |
| Trevor Kirczenow | Liberal | 13,394 | 25.7 | Musician |
| Brandy Schmidt | NDP | 2,398 | 4.6 | Executive Assistant |
| Noël Gautron | PPC | 942 | 1.8 | Commercial Driver |
| Blair Mahaffy | Green | 705 | 1.4 | Software Developer |
| Other candidates | 382 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Elmwood—Transcona NDP, toss-up
- St. Boniface—St. Vital Liberal, safe seat
- Kildonan—St. Paul Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg South Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg South Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg Centre Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated