Thunder Bay—Rainy River
Federal riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunder Bay—Rainy River | 47.7% | 34.5% | 4.6% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%−0.9 | 34.4% | 5.4%−0.8 | 1.8%+0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+0.7 | 30.4%+4.1 | 11.8%−7.2 | 2.1% |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
|
|---|
Current member
Marcus Powlowski · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 5.6 points, with 66.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 13.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Powlowski Elected | Liberal | 21,125 | 48.3 | Parliamentarian |
| Brendan Hyatt | Conservative | 18,685 | 42.7 | Retired Director of Education |
| Yuk-Sem Won | NDP | 2,954 | 6.7 | Litigator |
| Sabrina Ree | PPC | 433 | 1.0 | Multidisciplinary Healthcare Professional |
| Eric Arner | Green | 334 | 0.8 | Teacher |
| Other candidates | 251 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Provencher Conservative, safe seat
- Thunder Bay—Superior North Liberal, safe seat
- Elmwood—Transcona NDP, toss-up
- Kildonan—St. Paul Liberal, safe seat
- St. Boniface—St. Vital Liberal, safe seat
- Winnipeg South Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated