Yukon
Federal riding · Yukon · The North
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 25.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yukon | 54.2% | 29.0% | 3.7% | 2.7% |
| Provincial averageYukon | 54.2% | 29.0% | 3.7% | 2.7% |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+7.2 | 30.4%−1.4 | 11.8%−8.1 | 2.4%+0.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Brendan Hanley · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 14.5 points, with 72.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 25.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Hanley Elected | Liberal | 12,009 | 52.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Ryan Leef | Conservative | 8,719 | 38.3 | Consultant |
| Katherine McCallum | NDP | 1,434 | 6.3 | Artistic Executive Director |
| Gabrielle Dupont | Green | 474 | 2.1 | Draftsperson |
| Other candidates | 126 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Skeena—Bulkley Valley NDP, toss-up
- Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies Conservative, safe seat
- Northwest Territories Liberal, safe seat
- Grande Prairie Conservative, safe seat
- Peace River—Westlock Conservative, safe seat
- Fort McMurray—Cold Lake Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated