Halifax
Federal riding · Nova Scotia · Atlantic Canada
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 51.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | NDP | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halifax | 66.7% | 15.6% | 10.1% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageNova Scotia | 59.0%+7.7 | 4.4%+11.2 | 26.6%−16.5 | 1.5%−0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+19.7 | 11.8%+3.8 | 30.4%−20.3 | 2.4%−1.0 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Shannon Miedema · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 43.7 points, with 72.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 51.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Miedema Elected | Liberal | 32,886 | 62.6 | Environment and Climate Change |
| Mark Boudreau | Conservative | 9,939 | 18.9 | Communications Professional |
| Lisa Roberts | NDP | 8,642 | 16.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Amethyste Hamel-Gregory | Green | 422 | 0.8 | Educational Assistant |
| Maricar Aliasut | PPC | 271 | 0.5 | Property Manager |
| Other candidates | 365 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sydney—Glace Bay Liberal, safe seat
- Central Nova Liberal, safe seat
- Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish Liberal, safe seat
- Dartmouth—Cole Harbour Liberal, safe seat
- Sackville—Bedford—Preston Liberal, safe seat
- Halifax West Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated