Kensington and Bayswater
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 77% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.2 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 91%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kensington and Bayswater | 32.6% | 30.9% | 12.4% | 11.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+8.4 | 20.4%+10.5 | 23.1%−10.6 | 10.4%+1.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 135,420 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 37 |
| Employment rate | 67.4% |
Current member
Joe Powell · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 6.9 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 2.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Powell Elected | Labour | 17,025 | 40.6 |
| Felicity Buchan | Conservative | 14,122 | 33.7 |
| William Houngbo | Lib Dems | 2,910 | 6.9 |
| Mona Adam | Green | 2,732 | 6.5 |
| Marc Burca | Reform UK | 2,514 | 6.0 |
| Emma Dent Coad | Other | 1,824 | 4.4 |
| John Stevens | Other | 486 | 1.2 |
| Una O'Mahony | Other | 116 | 0.3 |
| Roger Phillips | Other | 114 | 0.3 |
| Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India | Other | 65 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Chelsea and Fulham Conservative, safe seat
- Queen's Park and Maida Vale Labour, safe seat
- Putney Labour, safe seat
- Cities of London and Westminster Conservative, toss-up
- Hampstead and Highgate Labour, safe seat
- Battersea Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated