2027 French presidential · Social-democratic primary
Raphaël Glucksmann wins the social-democratic primary
Raphaël Glucksmann won outright in the first round on October 11, 2026, with 66.2% of valid votes. There will be no second round: he will be the candidate of the PS, Place publique and the Republican and Socialist Left in the 2027 presidential election.
Results
First round
The five candidates
- Raphaël Glucksmann MEP, Place publique 11.8% in presidential polls · 69 lineups in 90 days
- Olivier Faure First secretary of the Socialist Party 4.5% in presidential polls · 10 lineups in 90 days
- Ségolène Royal Socialist presidential candidate in 2007 3.0% in presidential polls · 2 lineups in 90 days
- Jérôme Guedj Socialist member of parliament 3.0% in presidential polls · 1 lineup in 90 days
- Emmanuel Maurel President of the Republican and Socialist Left 1.0% in presidential polls · 1 lineup in 90 days
Who do French adults on the left want to win?
Toluna Harris Interactive for M6 and RTL, published October 9. The latest wave followed the October 4 debate and surveyed 2,826 adults in total. The figures below are for those placing themselves on the left, centre-left or far left; the report does not give the size of this subgroup.
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 33% |
|---|---|
| Ségolène Royal | 16% |
| Olivier Faure | 9% |
| Jérôme Guedj | 5% |
| Emmanuel Maurel | 5% |
| None of these candidates | 30% |
This measures a preferred winner, not the voting intentions of people registered for the primary. These percentages do not forecast the result.
Source : Toluna Harris Interactive, M6 / RTL · October 9, 2026 · p. 3, 12–13.
What left-wing voters think
We have no verified poll of people registered for the primary. What we do know is how the candidates are viewed on the left. These are not votes: people can like several candidates, and primary voters, who register and pay €15, may not look like the wider left-wing electorate.
Odoxa · Left-wing supporters, including LFI
Support rating (“you support” or “you feel sympathy for” them) · September 23–September 24, 2026 · n = 1,005
All French adults: Glucksmann 20 · Royal 16 · Faure 11 · Guedj 8 · Maurel 4
Most respondents were interviewed before the first debate (evening of September 23). Source : Odoxa, Mascaret, Public Sénat et la presse régionale
Elabe · Left-wing voters
Favourable image · September 29–September 30, 2026 · n = 1,000
All French adults: Glucksmann 21 · Royal 16 · Faure 12 · Guedj 8
Emmanuel Maurel was not tested. Source : Elabe, Les Échos
In these September image surveys, Royal and Faure are within ten points of Glucksmann on the left. Liking a candidate does not mean voting for them: these results cannot predict the primary ranking.
Interest in the primary campaign: 25% of French adults, 48% of left-wing supporters, 56% of PS and Place publique supporters. Source : Elabe, BFMTV, La Tribune Dimanche, September 29–October 2, 2026, n = 2,005.
What the result changes for the presidential race
We compare two lineups from the same survey, on the same people, where only the social-democratic candidate changes. It is the most direct measure of what each winner would weigh.
Faure instead of Glucksmann
Faure scores 4.5% where Glucksmann scores 11.9% (10 comparisons within the same survey).
Around them, scores move like this:
- Philippe +1.7
- Tondelier +1.3
- RN +1.1
- Mélenchon +1.0
- Attal +0.9
- Roussel +0.8
Royal instead of Glucksmann
Royal scores 3.0% where Glucksmann scores 10.0% (2 comparisons within the same survey).
A single comparison: an order of magnitude, not a measurement.
Guedj instead of Glucksmann
Guedj scores 3.0% where Glucksmann scores 11.0% (1 comparison within the same survey).
A single comparison: an order of magnitude, not a measurement.
Maurel instead of Glucksmann
Maurel scores 1.0% where Glucksmann scores 11.0% (1 comparison within the same survey).
A single comparison: an order of magnitude, not a measurement.
What about François Hollande?
He is not running in the primary, but pollsters still test him: 7.8% on average over 20 lineups in 90 days.
Who votes, and how
- Online vote, with about 1,000 physical voting points (a tablet in a booth).
- Open to paid-up members of the PS, Place publique and the GRS, and to non-members who pay €15 (€10 for students and non-taxpayers).
- Registration at least three days before the vote.
- The organizing commission reports 140,282 registered voters (RTL, October 6). In 2017, nearly 2 million voted in the Socialist primary.
Debates
- September 23 — LCI
- October 1 — France 2 · France Inter
- October 4 — BFMTV
Out of the race
Philippe Brun, whose candidacy had been validated, was suspended from the PS on September 16 and is not taking part. François Ruffin and Matthieu Pigasse did not get the agreement needed to enter.