France · 2027 presidential poll

IFOP — December 9, 2024

Fieldwork
December 6, 2024 → December 9, 2024
Sample
1,101 respondents
Published
December 9, 2024
Pollster release
Pollster release →

First round, voting intention

  • Marine Le Pen 36%
  • Édouard Philippe 25%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon 12%
  • Laurent Wauquiez 6%
  • Marine Tondelier 4.5%
  • Olivier Faure 4%
  • Éric Zemmour 4%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 3.5%
  • Fabien Roussel 3%
  • Jean Lassalle 1%
  • Nathalie Arthaud 0.5%
  • Philippe Poutou 0.5%

Our reading of this poll

Since the pollster’s previous wave (September 9, 2024), same lineup:

  • Mélenchon 9% → 12% (+3 pts)
  • Roussel 6% → 3% (−3 pts)
  • Le Pen 34% → 36% (+2 pts)
See the previous wave →
Where each candidacy takes its votes from: the candidacy effect →

This poll tested 5 candidate line-ups

French pollsters test several hypothetical fields in the same survey. Each one is shown below — the pollster’s own release rarely puts them side by side.

Line-up 1 · with Le Pen, Philippe, Wauquiez, Tondelier, Faure, Dupont-Aignan, Lassalle

  • Marine Le Pen36%
  • Édouard Philippe25%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon12%
  • Laurent Wauquiez6%
  • Marine Tondelier4.5%
  • Olivier Faure4%
  • Éric Zemmour4%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3.5%
  • Fabien Roussel3%
  • Jean Lassalle1%
  • Nathalie Arthaud0.5%
  • Philippe Poutou0.5%

Line-up 2 · with Le Pen, Attal, Wauquiez, Faure, Tondelier, Dupont-Aignan, Lassalle

  • Marine Le Pen38%
  • Gabriel Attal20%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon12%
  • Laurent Wauquiez8%
  • Olivier Faure5%
  • Marine Tondelier4.5%
  • Éric Zemmour4%
  • Fabien Roussel3%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1%
  • Jean Lassalle1%
  • Philippe Poutou0.5%

Line-up 3 · with Le Pen, Philippe, Hollande, Wauquiez, Tondelier, Dupont-Aignan, Lassalle

  • Marine Le Pen35%
  • Édouard Philippe24%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon11%
  • François Hollande7%
  • Laurent Wauquiez6%
  • Marine Tondelier4%
  • Éric Zemmour4%
  • Fabien Roussel3%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3%
  • Jean Lassalle1.5%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1%
  • Philippe Poutou0.5%

Line-up 4 · with Bardella, Philippe, Wauquiez, Tondelier, Faure, Dupont-Aignan, Lassalle

  • Jordan Bardella34%
  • Édouard Philippe26%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon12%
  • Laurent Wauquiez6.5%
  • Marine Tondelier5%
  • Olivier Faure4%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3.5%
  • Fabien Roussel3%
  • Éric Zemmour3%
  • Jean Lassalle1.5%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1%
  • Philippe Poutou0.5%

Line-up 5 · with Philippe, Glucksmann, Bayrou, Sébastien, de Villiers

  • Édouard Philippe20%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon12%
  • Éric Zemmour8%
  • Raphaël Glucksmann5%
  • François Bayrou4.5%
  • Fabien Roussel3%
  • Patrick Sébastien3%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1%
  • Philippe de Villiers1%
  • Philippe Poutou0.5%

A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.

Our weighted average and projection → All 2027 presidential polls →

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