France · 2027 presidential poll

IFOP — September 9, 2024

Fieldwork
September 6, 2024 → September 9, 2024
Sample
1,107 respondents
Published
September 9, 2024
Pollster release
Pollster release →

First round, voting intention

  • Marine Le Pen 34%
  • Édouard Philippe 27%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%
  • Fabien Roussel 6%
  • Marine Tondelier 5%
  • Olivier Faure 4%
  • Laurent Wauquiez 4%
  • Éric Zemmour 3.5%
  • Jean Lassalle 3%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 2%
  • Philippe Poutou 1.5%
  • Nathalie Arthaud 1%

Our reading of this poll

Since the pollster’s previous wave (April 18, 2024), same lineup:

  • Mélenchon 13% → 9% (−4 pts)
  • Philippe 24% → 27% (+3 pts)
  • Tondelier 2% → 5% (+3 pts)
See the previous wave →
Where each candidacy takes its votes from: the candidacy effect →

This poll tested 5 candidate line-ups

French pollsters test several hypothetical fields in the same survey. Each one is shown below — the pollster’s own release rarely puts them side by side.

Line-up 1 · with Le Pen, Philippe, Tondelier, Faure, Wauquiez, Lassalle, Dupont-Aignan

  • Marine Le Pen34%
  • Édouard Philippe27%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon9%
  • Fabien Roussel6%
  • Marine Tondelier5%
  • Olivier Faure4%
  • Laurent Wauquiez4%
  • Éric Zemmour3.5%
  • Jean Lassalle3%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
  • Philippe Poutou1.5%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1%

Line-up 2 · with Le Pen, Attal, Hollande, Tondelier, Wauquiez, Lassalle, Dupont-Aignan

  • Marine Le Pen35%
  • Gabriel Attal22%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon10%
  • François Hollande8%
  • Fabien Roussel5%
  • Marine Tondelier5%
  • Laurent Wauquiez5%
  • Jean Lassalle3%
  • Éric Zemmour3%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1%
  • Philippe Poutou1%

Line-up 3 · with Le Pen, Attal, Tondelier, Wauquiez, Faure, Lassalle, Dupont-Aignan

  • Marine Le Pen35%
  • Gabriel Attal24%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon10%
  • Fabien Roussel6%
  • Marine Tondelier6%
  • Laurent Wauquiez5%
  • Olivier Faure4%
  • Jean Lassalle3%
  • Éric Zemmour3%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1%
  • Philippe Poutou1%

Line-up 4 · with Le Pen, Philippe, Hollande, Tondelier, Wauquiez, Lassalle, Dupont-Aignan

  • Marine Le Pen34%
  • Édouard Philippe26%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon9.5%
  • François Hollande7%
  • Fabien Roussel6%
  • Marine Tondelier5%
  • Laurent Wauquiez4%
  • Éric Zemmour3%
  • Jean Lassalle2%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
  • Philippe Poutou1%
  • Nathalie Arthaud0.5%

Line-up 5 · with Philippe, Bayrou, Glucksmann, de Villiers, Sébastien

  • Édouard Philippe24%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon10%
  • Fabien Roussel6%
  • François Bayrou6%
  • Éric Zemmour5%
  • Raphaël Glucksmann4%
  • Philippe de Villiers3%
  • Patrick Sébastien2%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1%
  • Philippe Poutou1%

A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.

Our weighted average and projection → All 2027 presidential polls →

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