France · 2027 presidential poll

IFOP — October 25, 2023

Fieldwork
October 24, 2023 → October 25, 2023
Sample
1,179 respondents
Published
October 25, 2023
Pollster release
Pollster release →

First round, voting intention

  • Marine Le Pen 32%
  • Édouard Philippe 26%
  • Fabien Roussel 7.5%
  • François Ruffin 7%
  • Éric Zemmour 6.5%
  • Laurent Wauquiez 6%
  • Olivier Faure 4%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 3%
  • Jean Lassalle 2.5%
  • Philippe Poutou 2%
  • Marine Tondelier 2%
  • Nathalie Arthaud 1.5%

Our reading of this poll

Since the pollster’s previous wave (March 31, 2023), same lineup:

  • Mélenchon 17% → 14% (−3 pts)
  • Le Pen 29% → 31% (+2 pts)
  • Philippe 26% → 25% (−1 pt)
See the previous wave →
Where each candidacy takes its votes from: the candidacy effect →

This poll tested 6 candidate line-ups

French pollsters test several hypothetical fields in the same survey. Each one is shown below — the pollster’s own release rarely puts them side by side.

Line-up 1 · with Le Pen, Philippe, Ruffin, Wauquiez, Faure, Dupont-Aignan, Lassalle, Tondelier

  • Marine Le Pen32%
  • Édouard Philippe26%
  • Fabien Roussel7.5%
  • François Ruffin7%
  • Éric Zemmour6.5%
  • Laurent Wauquiez6%
  • Olivier Faure4%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3%
  • Jean Lassalle2.5%
  • Philippe Poutou2%
  • Marine Tondelier2%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1.5%

Line-up 2 · with Le Pen, Philippe, Mélenchon, Wauquiez, Faure, Lassalle, Dupont-Aignan, Tondelier

  • Marine Le Pen31%
  • Édouard Philippe25%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon14%
  • Éric Zemmour6.5%
  • Fabien Roussel6%
  • Laurent Wauquiez5%
  • Olivier Faure4%
  • Jean Lassalle2.5%
  • Philippe Poutou2%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1%
  • Marine Tondelier1%

Line-up 3 · with Le Pen, Le Maire, Mélenchon, Wauquiez, Faure, Lassalle, Dupont-Aignan, Tondelier

  • Marine Le Pen32%
  • Bruno Le Maire18%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon15%
  • Fabien Roussel7%
  • Éric Zemmour6.5%
  • Laurent Wauquiez6%
  • Olivier Faure5.5%
  • Jean Lassalle3%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2.5%
  • Marine Tondelier2%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1.5%
  • Philippe Poutou1%

Line-up 4 · with Le Pen, Attal, Mélenchon, Wauquiez, Faure, Lassalle, Dupont-Aignan, Tondelier

  • Marine Le Pen33%
  • Gabriel Attal19%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon14%
  • Fabien Roussel6%
  • Laurent Wauquiez6%
  • Éric Zemmour6%
  • Olivier Faure5%
  • Jean Lassalle4%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3%
  • Marine Tondelier2%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1%
  • Philippe Poutou1%

Line-up 5 · with Le Pen, Darmanin, Mélenchon, Faure, Wauquiez, Lassalle, Dupont-Aignan, Tondelier

  • Marine Le Pen33%
  • Gérald Darmanin16%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon15%
  • Éric Zemmour7%
  • Fabien Roussel6%
  • Olivier Faure6%
  • Laurent Wauquiez6%
  • Jean Lassalle3.5%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2.5%
  • Marine Tondelier2%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1.5%
  • Philippe Poutou1.5%

Line-up 6 · with Philippe, Mélenchon, Glucksmann, de Villiers, Sébastien, Bayrou

  • Édouard Philippe19%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon14%
  • Fabien Roussel6%
  • Éric Zemmour6%
  • Raphaël Glucksmann5%
  • Philippe de Villiers4%
  • Patrick Sébastien3%
  • François Bayrou2%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1%
  • Philippe Poutou1%

A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.

Our weighted average and projection → All 2027 presidential polls →

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