France · 2027 presidential poll

IFOP — January 10, 2024

Fieldwork
January 9, 2024 → January 10, 2024
Sample
1,144 respondents
Published
January 10, 2024
Pollster release
Pollster release →

First round, voting intention

  • Marine Le Pen 33%
  • Édouard Philippe 25%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon 13%
  • Éric Zemmour 6.5%
  • Fabien Roussel 6%
  • Laurent Wauquiez 5%
  • Olivier Faure 3%
  • Jean Lassalle 2.5%
  • Marine Tondelier 2%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 2%
  • Philippe Poutou 1.5%
  • Nathalie Arthaud 0.5%

Our reading of this poll

Since the pollster’s previous wave (October 25, 2023), same lineup:

  • Le Pen 31% → 33% (+2 pts)
  • Mélenchon 14% → 13% (−1 pt)
  • Faure 4% → 3% (−1 pt)
See the previous wave →
Where each candidacy takes its votes from: the candidacy effect →

This poll tested 5 candidate line-ups

French pollsters test several hypothetical fields in the same survey. Each one is shown below — the pollster’s own release rarely puts them side by side.

Line-up 1 · with Le Pen, Philippe, Wauquiez, Faure, Lassalle, Tondelier, Dupont-Aignan

  • Marine Le Pen33%
  • Édouard Philippe25%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon13%
  • Éric Zemmour6.5%
  • Fabien Roussel6%
  • Laurent Wauquiez5%
  • Olivier Faure3%
  • Jean Lassalle2.5%
  • Marine Tondelier2%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
  • Philippe Poutou1.5%
  • Nathalie Arthaud0.5%

Line-up 2 · with Bardella, Attal, Wauquiez, Faure, Dupont-Aignan, Lassalle, Tondelier

  • Jordan Bardella28%
  • Gabriel Attal24%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon14.5%
  • Éric Zemmour9%
  • Laurent Wauquiez6%
  • Fabien Roussel5%
  • Olivier Faure4%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3%
  • Jean Lassalle2.5%
  • Philippe Poutou2%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1%
  • Marine Tondelier1%

Line-up 3 · with Le Pen, Attal, Wauquiez, Faure, Lassalle, Dupont-Aignan, Tondelier

  • Marine Le Pen32%
  • Gabriel Attal23%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon14%
  • Fabien Roussel6.5%
  • Éric Zemmour6.5%
  • Laurent Wauquiez6%
  • Olivier Faure3.5%
  • Jean Lassalle2.5%
  • Philippe Poutou2%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
  • Marine Tondelier1.5%
  • Nathalie Arthaud0.5%

Line-up 4 · with Bardella, Philippe, Wauquiez, Faure, Lassalle, Dupont-Aignan, Tondelier

  • Jordan Bardella27%
  • Édouard Philippe26%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon15%
  • Éric Zemmour8%
  • Fabien Roussel6%
  • Laurent Wauquiez6%
  • Olivier Faure3.5%
  • Jean Lassalle2.5%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2.5%
  • Philippe Poutou1.5%
  • Marine Tondelier1.5%
  • Nathalie Arthaud0.5%

Line-up 5 · with Philippe, Glucksmann, Sébastien, de Villiers, Bayrou

  • Édouard Philippe24%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon14.5%
  • Éric Zemmour6%
  • Fabien Roussel5%
  • Raphaël Glucksmann4%
  • Patrick Sébastien3%
  • Philippe de Villiers2.5%
  • Philippe Poutou2%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1%
  • François Bayrou1%

A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.

Our weighted average and projection → All 2027 presidential polls →

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