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Français établis hors de France — 10ème circonscription

Legislative constituency · Français établis hors de France

Forecast of July 11, 2026

Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 82% chance of winning, with an average lead of 0.3 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 37%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 31.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 31.3%
  • RN and allies 22.4%
  • LR and allies 10.9%
  • Others 3.8%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
Français établis hors de France — 10ème circonscription 31.6%31.3%22.4%10.9%
Provincial averageFrançais établis hors de France 35.6%−4.0 33.1%−1.9 16.6%+5.8 10.6%+0.3
National averageFrance 29.0%+2.6 17.0%+14.3 36.0%−13.6 12.2%−1.3

Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.

Current member

Amélia LAKRAFI · Centre (Ensemble)

Previous election (2024)

The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.

Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 0.3 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate Party Votes %
Elsa DI MEO Left (NFP) 11,651 32.5
Amélia LAKRAFI Elected Centre (Ensemble) 11,398 31.8
Jean DE VERON RN and allies 6,147 17.2
Lucas LAMAH LR and allies 3,488 9.7
Marie Josée MABASI Centre (Ensemble) 948 2.7
Philippe CASTELLAN RN and allies 842 2.4
Ali Camille HOJEIJ Centre (Ensemble) 709 2.0
Odile MOJON-CHEMINADE Others 450 1.3
Sandra LAROSE Others 94 0.3
Julie LAGUI Others 70 0.2
Hugues Michel MARIE-LOUISE Others 20 0.1
Nathalie MAZOT Left (NFP) 7 0.0

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Forecast updated