Var — 3ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Var
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 33.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Var — 3ème circonscription | 51.5% | 17.7% | 15.3% | 10.0% |
| Provincial averageVar | 54.4%−2.9 | 16.7%+1.0 | 15.5%−0.2 | 8.3%+1.7 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+15.5 | 29.0%−11.3 | 17.0%−1.7 | 12.2%−2.2 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Stéphane RAMBAUD · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 33.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stéphane RAMBAUD Elected | RN and allies | 32,343 | 46.5 |
| Isabelle MONFORT | Centre (Ensemble) | 14,057 | 20.2 |
| Julia PEIRONET BREMOND | Left (NFP) | 12,839 | 18.5 |
| Julien SAVELLI | LR and allies | 6,117 | 8.8 |
| Charles MALOT | Greens | 1,574 | 2.3 |
| Odile JUDICE | RN and allies | 1,369 | 2.0 |
| Delphine ROLLAND | Others | 531 | 0.8 |
| Alexis DOMINIAK | Greens | 455 | 0.7 |
| Pierre DEIDON | Far left | 259 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Var — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Var — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Var — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Var — 7ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Var — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Var — 8ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated