Var — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Var
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 37.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | Greens | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Var — 4ème circonscription | 59.2% | 21.3% | 12.3% | 3.2% |
| Provincial averageVar | 54.4%+4.7 | 15.5%+5.8 | 16.7%−4.5 | 1.7%+1.4 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+23.2 | 17.0%+4.3 | 29.0%−16.8 | 0.4%+2.7 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Philippe LOTTIAUX · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 37.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philippe LOTTIAUX Elected | RN and allies | 40,631 | 56.1 |
| Sereine MAUBORGNE | Centre (Ensemble) | 18,994 | 26.2 |
| Sabine CRISTOFANI-VIGLIONE | Left (NFP) | 9,416 | 13.0 |
| Guillaume ROBAA | Greens | 2,697 | 3.7 |
| Pascale MOREL | Far left | 677 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Var — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Var — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Var — 8ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Var — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Var — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Var — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated