Var — 2ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Var
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 37.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Greens | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Var — 2ème circonscription | 56.4% | 18.6% | 16.8% | 3.6% |
| Provincial averageVar | 54.4%+1.9 | 16.7%+1.8 | 15.5%+1.3 | 1.7%+1.8 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+20.4 | 29.0%−10.4 | 17.0%−0.2 | 0.4%+3.1 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Laure LAVALETTE · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 37.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laure LAVALETTE Elected | RN and allies | 30,551 | 50.8 |
| Josy CHAMBON | Centre (Ensemble) | 13,061 | 21.7 |
| Isaline CORNIL | Left (NFP) | 11,613 | 19.3 |
| Olivier LESAGE | Greens | 2,500 | 4.2 |
| Julia BONNEFOY | RN and allies | 1,506 | 2.5 |
| Jean-Michel GHIOTTO | Far left | 493 | 0.8 |
| Florian FIMBEL | Others | 405 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Var — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Var — 7ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Var — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Var — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 9ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 10ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated